Ness Notes (32 to 16)
Things happen quickly in the NCAA tournament. The tournament starts on Thursday and by Friday night, the field has been narrowed down to 32 teams. By Sunday night, only 16 teams remain with only 15 games remaining before the crowning of this year’s national champions!
Through the first two days of the tournament, all four of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds advanced, but few looked impressive doing so. The top seeds are now 88-0 since 1985 in the first round with the No. 2 seeds increasing their record to 84-4. However, Memphis, the lowest of the four No. 1 seeds (and the smallest seed), was the only No. 1 seed to ‘cover’ a first-round game, while UCLA was the only No. 2 seed to cover his game.
That 2-6 ATS record reduces the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to a very unimpressive 31-33 ATS mark over the past eight years in the tournament’s first round, especially when compared to their flashy record! SU of 63-1!
The lowest seed to upset in the first round was Northwestern State (14), which beat No. 3 Iowa 64-63 on Friday as a seven-point underdog. No. 13 Bradley’s win over No. 4 Kansas 77-73 on Friday night was the second-biggest upset of the first round (Bradley opened an eight-point dog and closed around 6 1/2).
Northwestern State becomes the 15th seed out of 14 to win a first-round game since 1985 (88 games). The Demons will take on the sixth-seeded Mountaineers on Sunday, trying to become the third-seeded 14th to win a second-round game.
Cleveland State was the first to do so in 1986, and Chattanooga pulled off the trick in 1997. However, both schools lost their Sweet 16 games, Cleveland State vs. Navy (71-70) and Chattanooga vs. Providence (71-65). West Va opened as a 6 1/2 point favorite.
Bradley’s win over Kansas makes the Braves the 18th 13th seed to win a first-round game. As with Northwestern State, history is not on Bradley’s side when the Braves face No. 5 Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Of the previous 17 13 seeds that won in the first round, only Richmond (1988), Valparaíso (1998), and Oklahoma (1999) won their second round games. All three lost their Sweet 16 games. Pittsburgh opened as a 4 1/2-point favorite.
The NCAA defines a major upset when the winner is seeded five or more spots below the loser. Using that definition, the first round produced six major upsets. Joining Northwestern State and Bradley were 12-seeded Montana and Texas A&M, which beat five-seeded Nevada and Syracuse on Thursday, plus 11-seeded Wisconsin-Milwaukee and George Mason, who they defeated six-seeded Oklahoma (Thursday) and Michigan State (Friday).
A 12 seed has now beaten a 5 seed in 20 of the last 23 years, with 14 advancing to the Sweet 16 (Wisconsin-Milwaukee did so last year). However, only one of those 14 teams won their Sweet 16 game, Missouri in 2002. The Tigers lost to Oklahoma 81-75 that year, in the regional finals.
Texas A&M and Wisconsin-Milwaukee play on Saturday, facing off against four seeds LSU and Florida. LSU is favored by five points over A&M and Florida is favored by seven points over Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
The Big East, which sent a record eight teams to the tournament this year, redeemed itself on Friday. Big East teams went 0-3 on Thursday, but came back to win all five games on Friday (3-2 ATS). The Big-10 saw their teams go 3-3 (2-4 ATS) through the first two days and the SEC went 5-1 (4-2 ATS).
The ACC was a perfect 4-0 in the first round (though only 2-2 ATS), while the Pac-10 went 3-1 (3-1 ATS) and the Big-12 went 2-2 (1-3 ATS ) ). The MVC had four schools in this year’s tournament (the most in history) and saw their teams go 2-2 SU and ATS.
Air Force and Bradley (both seeded 13) plus Texas A&M and Utah State (both seeded 12) were considered the “last teams to enter” as they were the lowest seeded overall teams. Bradley and A&M won their first-round games, and neither the Air Force nor Utah State were embarrassed by losing to Illinois and Washington.
There also seemed to be many who questioned whether Hofstra (at 24-6 the Pride had the most wins of any uninvited team!) and not George Mason (11 seeds), should have the CAA overall school. The Patriots did well on Friday night, defeating sixth seed Michigan State.
closing note
Duke may not win this year’s tournament, as too often the Blue Devils look like a two-man team. In fact, Redick and Williams had 58 of the team’s 70 points in the Blue Devils’ 70-54 Game 1 win over Southern. However, Coach K has a pretty good track record. His victory on Friday brings him to 67 NCAA wins, extending his NCAA record (Dean Smith won 65). The closest active trainers to him are Lute Olson at 47 and Roy Williams at 42 (entering the weekend).
If Duke were to beat George Washington on Saturday (the Dookies are about 10-point favorites!), it would clinch Duke’s ninth straight Sweet 16 appearance. The next longest active streak is Illinois, which has made two straight appearances at Sweet 16! Illinois can make it three in a row if they beat Washington on Saturday. Look out Mike, the Illini program is getting the better of you!