How to find a value bet

The first way is to investigate the event itself. Are there things you discover that few others are considering? For example, maybe you are intimately familiar with a particular team and how well they play, so you can quickly and intuitively tell whether or not the bookmaker’s odds are accurate.

Of course, this requires you to do many hours of homework and realistically just means you can know (and therefore bet on) two or three teams at most. Beyond that, you will need more hours in your day!

While doing this level of research on a sport can be a fun hobby, it’s frankly unrealistic for the serious bettor.

Another way is much more realistic.

An important consideration to take into account when calculating the value of the odds is to think about the bookmaker’s “commission” on each bet. All bookmakers incorporate a small profit for themselves into their odds: it’s part of doing business. Comparing two bookmakers with similar odds could end up revealing very different odds when taking profit points.

To do this you need to use the following calculations to help you. Note: This calculation may seem complex at first, but after a little practice you will find it very easy to use:

Offered Value Multiple = Bookmaker Average Expected Probability / Bookmaker Expected Probability

The value offered is a comparison between the average expected probability among many bookmakers and the specific probability of a bookmaker.

So the next thing you need to do is take out the markup. Use this calculation to do that:

Actual Value Margin = (Average Expected Probability % of Bookmaker Offered – Average WinMargin % Per Result) / (Expected Probability % of Bookmaker Offered – Bookmaker Profitability % by result)

In this calculation, you’re determining the true value of best by finding two numbers: the average expected probability minus the payoff AND the expected probability offered minus the payoff… and then dividing those two numbers.

Not sure how much the individual bookmakers’ markup is? Usually it is around 1% – 4%.

Now that we know that number, we have a better idea of ​​what the real odds are and we will be able to select from several bookmakers the ones that offer the best odds.