Footnotes: NFL Remarks – November 15, 2005
Chargers to electrocute Bills… San Diego is coming off a bye week and is 10-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record dating back to last season. His next victim should be Buffalo (+9.5) this week at home. The Bills are coming off a 14-3 home win over KC after JP Losman replaced the injured Kelly Holcomb. But the win wasn’t a pretty thing, as the BUF amassed just 209 total offensive yards and the Bills’ vulnerable No. 31 rushing defense gave up 150 yards to Larry Johnson and company. Word is LaDainian Tomlinson will wear a bib all week at practice to soak up the pounds of drool that pour from his mouth as he dreams of taking on the Bills’ beleaguered run defense.
Breaking the wind at Soldier Field… Chicago could be 6-3 SU (5-3-1 ATS) after its last uncovered 17-9 win over San Francisco in a game that featured 50 MPH winds and a return 108-yard TD rush from a Bears Nate Vasher field goal attempt late in the second quarter. But alarming to Bears supporters, all six of their team’s wins have come against opponents with losing records. CHI 0-2 SU vs. teams with winning records, including a 24-7 blowout at home against Cincinnati in week three. The Bengals’ loss could bode ill with Carolina (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS and 3-0 both SU and ATS L3) coming to town this week. Like the Orange Cats, the Panthers boast an excellent offense (4th-highest scoring unit in the NFL) and Chicago’s 24th-scoring unit might not be able to keep up and hold up under the small (+) tax. 2.5 in the press).
Road Warriors… Forgive Indianapolis for failing to cover a monstrous 17.5-point margin in their last 31-17 home win over the hapless Texans after their emotional win over the Patriots the week before. They are still a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS on the road with a Cincy road date on deck. The Bengals are coming off a bye week, but are 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS when playing a winning team. Both teams boast higher-rated offenses, with the Bengals and Colts ranking 10th and No. 1 in scoring, respectively. And these teams are one and two in the NFL in points allowed with Indy securing the top spot again. The real difference here could be in the trenches, as INDY ranks 10th against the race, while CIN ranks 24th in the same category.
The Cardinals make the endangered species list…Arizona is a horrible 4-16 ATS in its last twenty road games and a disastrous 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents after their latest embarrassing 29-21 loss at Detroit. This could spell trouble this week as they head to the Show Me State to take on the Rams. Totals alert: Both teams are 13-5 (o/u) combined this year. With these two teams playing, it’s time to listen to Paul Simon’s music, “Slip Sliding away… Slip, sliding away…”
The Bucs are ready to walk… Tampa could be ready for a big disappointment this week at Atlanta (-6) after a thrilling 36-35 win at home against Washington. Keep in mind that the road dogs of a home win as an underdog are a 13-37 ATS back-breaker the following week when both teams boast winning records. Side note, the Bucs are a miserable 2-10 ATS in their last twelve road games. The Falcons should have plenty of extra motivation after a rare loss at home, falling to the Packers 33-25 as 8.5-point favorites. ATL 4-2 ATS after a loss dating back to last season.
Oakland ready to raid bookies? Norv Turner is an incredible 14-3 ATS in his last seventeen as a +3.5 to +7 road underdog. So he doesn’t write them off against Washington (as he probably will) on the road this Sunday after Denver beat them 31-17 at home. The Raiders are also 3-1 ATS away from the Coliseum (or 2-2 ATS depending on which line you got when they played Kansas City at Arrowhead) and are facing a Skins team that has allowed 36 points in two of its last three games. . In the other game during this stretch, WAS faced an Eagles team sans Terrell Owens.
49ers No Fools Gold At Home… Fourth QB Cody Picket completed just one measly pass all game (!!!) in the 49ers’ last 17-9 loss at Chicago. But the 49ers easily covered themselves as 13-point underdogs and are actually 3-2 ATS at home with Seattle (-11.5) coming into town this week. The problem is that Seattle is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five and still avoiding the banana peel most of us expected to fall on them. In a similar matchup two weeks ago, the Seabirds dominated the Cardinals 33-19 with 4.5 chalk points on the road.
Just the facts, ma’am… The home favorites are now 54-44 ATS on the season, while the away favorites are also profitable at 21-16 ATS. In short, the overall favorites are a staggering 76-60 ATS. Breaking this down further, we find that the -3 or under favorites are a ridiculous 41-23 ATS. Notably, home favorites of -3 or less rank at 28-17 ATS, while road favorites of a field goal or less rank at 12-7 ATS.